Anita Elberse collaborated on some of “The Long Tail” author Chris Anderson’s research. She’s followed that up with a Harvard Business Review article that skewers the premise of the Long Tail.

While plenty of interest in the big blockbusters of media and entertainment grab most of the attention, the pervasive Internet should be able to expose a lengthening tail of content to consumers. There’s opportunity in this obscurity, Anderson put forth in his bestselling book; as the subtitle of his book goes, the future of business is selling less of more.

Elberse came up with a different theory in her article, a knockdown pitch that seemingly chops off the long tail and nails it up as a trophy:

Although no one disputes the lengthening of the tail (clearly, more obscure products are being made available for purchase every day), the tail is likely to be extremely flat and populated by titles that are mostly a diversion for consumers whose appetite for true blockbusters continues to grow. It is therefore highly disputable that much money can be made in the tail. In sales of both videos and recorded music—in many ways the perfect products to test the long-tail theory—we see that hits are and probably will remain dominant. That is the reality that should inform retailers as they struggle to offer their customers a satisfying assortment cost-efficiently. And it’s the unavoidable challenge to producers. The companies that will prosper are the ones most capable of capitalizing on individual best sellers.

We can summarize this even further: people are people, and they’ll always follow what others do. Hits are a self-fulfilling prophecy; the company that promotes its hits the best wins, while not many will sift through the long tail to find equal or better values for their time or money.

Posted on Friday, June 27th, 2008 at 12:44 pm. Permalink