Online retail sales in the U.S. (excluding travel) will reach nearly $132 billion in 2009, down 0.4 percent from 2008, according to a new forecast from eMarketer.

The forecast says that if the recession ends this year, as many economists expect, online sales will begin to rebound in 2010 and hit double digit growth by 2011.

“Everyone focuses on the downturn in the overall economy, but the recession has only accentuated the gradual decline in online sales growth over the past few years-the decline would likely have occurred even in normal economic times,” says Jeffrey Grau, eMarketer senior analyst and author of the new report, Retail E-Commerce Forecast: Cautious Optimism.

“It’s just simple math: The bigger online sales become, the harder it is to maintain high levels of growth.”

Increased spending by existing online buyers is the key to continued ecommerce growth. About 152 million individuals ages 14 and above will shop online in 2009.

“That means almost nine out of 10 Internet users will browse, research or compare products online this year,” says Mr. Grau. “This rate will grow slightly by 2013, since most Internet users predisposed to online shopping will already be doing it.”

Forrester Research estimated that store sales influenced by online research are higher than retail ecommerce sales. For 2009, projected cross-channel sales are $758.8 billion, while online sales will reach $235.4 billion.

People took a harder look at shopping in June 2008 and quite a few decided the savings would be worth the wait for delivery from an online business.

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Anita Elberse collaborated on some of “The Long Tail” author Chris Anderson’s research. She’s followed that up with a Harvard Business Review article that skewers the premise of the Long Tail.

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Paul McGuinness stumbled into the find of a lifetime in discovering U2 and becoming the megastar band’s manager. He now he’s raging about the commoditization of music and blaming Internet service providers for it. We chuckle after the jump.

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Shades of Office Space! Someone’s used the Internet to stick it to a couple of financial companies, a few cents at a time.

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Bookselling chain decides competing with Amazon.com on book sales will be a better prospect than the now-ended partnership with the online retailing giant.

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Disputes between buyers and sellers over e-commerce transactions need not end up as a court battle, if the parties opt to give the Fair Reputations System a try.

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Want to auction something in Australia on eBay? PayPal will be your payment processor next month. How long will it be until they try to implement that in the US?

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Trent Reznor tossed another dart at the music industry by releasing The Slip as a free download.

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Several of Hayden Panettiere’s favorite garments will go on sale on Zude in support of the Save The Whales Again foundation.

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